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EUR/USD : EU inflation outpaces US price growth as ECB, Fed meetings loom
GBP/USD : Pound slips as global bond rout lifts dollar, gilt yields hit 6% .
USD/JPY : Tokyo core inflation rate jumps in September, bolsters case for more BOJ hikes .
Dow Jones : U.S. stocks end higher as Fed hike bets wane, but post weekly loss on bond rout
Gold : Precious metal extends slide but safe-haven flows limit losses .
Crude Oil : Oil set for weekly loss on supply recovery, G7’s release of emergency stocks
The US Dollar (USD) had yet another positive week, appreciating sharply against most of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair fell for a fourth consecutive week and traded as low as 1.1215, a level last seen in May 2025. As the weekend approaches, the pair hovers around 1.1280 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) eases from an over one-year high. United States economic resilience The United States (US) economic resilience is out of the question. The USD surged after a batch of first-tier macroeconomic data showed that growth continues, the labor market is healthy , and inflation is stable. For sure, softer price pressures are preferable, but on that front , no bad news is good news. Market participants learned on Wednesday that annualized growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was upwardly revised to 2.2% in Q2 from the previous estimate of 1.5 %. Also, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, came in softer than anticipated in August, holding at 3.4%, while the July reading was downwardly revised from 3.7% to 3.4%. Above the ideal 2% is yet below this year’s peak of 4 %. On the same day, ADP reported that the private sector added 90K new jobs in September, better than the 70K anticipated by market participants. The country added a measly 29K new jobs in September, much worse than the 90K expected, according to the Nonfarm Payrolls report. August figure was downwardly revised to 133K from a previous estimate of 162K. Also, the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.2% in the month, while the Labor Force Participation Rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, increased by 3% on a yearly basis, coming in below analysts' estimate of 3.2%.While soft, the figures were far from concerning, yet a less tight labor market leans the scale towards lower interest rates, adding to early speculation that the Fed will refrain from hiking in October.US data impact on the Federal Reserve Data has not only proved US economic resilience, but also affected market bets on future Fed monetary policy decisions. Following the softer-than-anticipated PCE Price Index, market players rushed to take back bets on an October interest rate hike. The odds of a rate hike on October 28 have decreased to around 21% from a peak above 70% in the previous week. So, why does the USD remain strong? The weekly rally and Friday’s pullback could be explained by government bond yields’ behavior. The 10-year Treasury note yielded as much as 5.3%, a multi-decade high mid-week. Following the NFP release, the 10-year yield fell to 5.1 5%. Higher yields boost demand for USD-related assets. There’s, however, a caveat: surging long-term yields are usually the result of mounting inflation concerns. So , while investors are still worried about higher inflation, they still believe the American economy will outperform those of its peers. What’s up with Europe? The Euro is weak, despite the European Central Bank (ECB) grabbing the bull by the horns earlier: the ECB hiked interest rates twice so far this year, and investors see at least one more hike before the year is over, and three more hikes through 2027.An October hike seems unlikely, despite inflation rising quicker than anticipated across the Eurozone in September, with worrisome increases in energy and food-related inflation. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) jumped to 3.4% YoY in France, reached 4.1% in Italy and 5% in Spain. German HICP also accelerated, up to 3.3% from 2.9% in August. To no surprise, the Eurozone HICP hit 3.8% YoY, with the core annual reading at 2.5% in the same period. Such a 3.8% is above the ECB’s expected 3.6% for the quarter. Nevertheless, the odds for an October hike stand barely at 18% according to the ecb-watch.eu tool. Such odds are at 73% in December. Middle East crisis remains the same . The Middle East war is the main cause of rising global inflation. That’s no news. And since the stalemate between the US and Iran remains unchanged, a resolution is unlikely in the foreseeable future, meaning inflation-related concerns are unlikely to recede. Additionally , winter is coming in the Northern Hemisphere, which means energy needs will increase, particularly in Europe. That means the ECB is more likely to hike rates more times than the Fed. Yet, at this point, it is worth remembering the ECB deposit facility rate stands at 2.5%, while the Fed’s fed funds rate floats in a 3.75% to 4.0% range. The Fed may be moving less frequently, but it is still better to hold USDs than EURs.
What’s next on the docket , the macroeconomic calendar has some interesting figures these days. Monday will bring the September US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and the final S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs for both economies. The Eurozone will unveil August Retail Sales on Tuesday, while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be out on Wednesday. The document will offer little insight into what US policymakers plan for upcoming meetings, but speculative interest is likely to hold its breath ahead of the release and scrutinize it ad nauseam once it’s out. The ECB will publish the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts on Thursday, while the US will offer the preliminary estimate of the October Michigan Consumer Expectations Index on Friday.
Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-eu-inflation-outpaces-us-price-growth-as-ecb-fed-meetings-loom-202610021459
EUR/USD
Sterling traded lower last week while the euro also fell, as a global bond sell-off pushed U.S. and UK long-dated yields to multi-decade highs and kept the dollar near its strongest levels of the year. The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 5.340%, near a 52-week high. The dollar index tested the year’s high at 101.80. "Dollar debasement fears have been set aside for now as the cyclical story takes center stage," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. “Barring some breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, it looks like the dollar will stay bid in October," he said, noting the index has risen in seven of the last 10 Octobers.
Softer-than-expected August PCE inflation barely dented rate expectations: the one-month USD OIS rate priced one year forward briefly fell 5bp, then retraced it all by the end of the U.S. session. ADP data pointed to accelerating payrolls. Investors await jobless claims and ISM manufacturing, with a headline of 55 expected. "The sense is that the AI investment boom is seeping into broader parts of the US economy," Turner said. Fed voters Neel Kashkari (1330 CET), whom ING called "a noted hawk", and Chris Waller (1600 CET) speak today. ING said Waller’s remarks would be "more interesting should he stray away" from economic data into monetary policy. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are the next major catalyst. Sterling was hit by both dollar strength and the bond rout. UK 30-year gilt yields rose to 6%, the highest for nearly three decades, and London’s FTSE 100 fell nearly 2%, adding pressure on Chancellor John Healey ahead of his first Budget this month. Sterling’s fall slightly exceeded the euros , though ING did not attribute the gap to gilts. Nationwide said annual house price growth slowed to 0.8% in September from 1.6%."Market activity and house prices have remained subdued in recent months, in part reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop," said chief economist Robert Gardner. ING noted EUR/GBP fell this week after Prime Minister Andy Burnham called for a debate on closer EU ties, possibly including rejoining. "We are years away from any clarity here," Turner said, flagging a UK-EU summit around Nov. 20. Turner said the euro’s drop reflects "the hawkish reassessment of Fed policy rather than any independent euro weakness," but called the OAT-Bund spread’s widening to 127bp "quite an alarming move" that could add risk premium and constrain the ECB’s tightening cycle. Speakers Joachim Nagel, Christine Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel are due, though "the chances of the ECB ’out-hawking’ the Fed seem slim," he said. ING said 1.1300/1320 "may feel like the bottom of the range" in EUR/USD. "If the OAT-Bund spreads much further and US data stays strong, we will have to prepare for a drop into the 1.11-12 area," Turner said, giving no timeframe. ING expects DXY at 101.50-101.80, with an upside breakout possible on strong payrolls or if European debt weakness weighs on the euro. It gave no GBP/USD target.
Source: https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/sterling-today-pound-slips-as-global-bond-rout-lifts-dollar-gilt-yields-hit-6-4926602
GBP/USD
Annual core inflation in Japan’s capital accelerated in September at its fastest pace in 10 months, highlighting mounting price pressure and bolstering the case for further interest rate hikes from the central bank. The data, widely regarded as a leading indicator of nationwide trends, will be among factors the Bank of Japan considers when it updates its quarterly inflation forecasts at its next policy meeting on October 29- 30. While market participants have reduced bets of a back-to-back hike this month, many expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate in December to forestall the risk of inflation overshoot. “Even when discounting one-off factors, the inflation numbers are strong and show firms are steadily passing on rising costs from the weak yen and Iran war," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. “Nationwide core inflation will likely exceed 3% in coming months. With upside risks to underlying inflation, the BOJ will be on the hook for another rate hike as soon as December. “The core consumer price index, which includes prices of fuel but not fresh food, in Tokyo rose 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, data showed on Friday, versus 1.8% in August and the median market forecast of 2.4 %. The figure was above the BOJ’s 2% target for the first time since January and represented the fastest year-on-year pace since a 2.8% rise in November. An index stripping away the effect of volatile fresh food and fuel prices, which is closely watched by the BOJ as a more accurate gauge of trend inflation, rose 3.0% in September after a 2.0% gain in August, for its fastest year-on-year rise since August 2025.While the jump was partly due to the phasing out of water bill and childcare subsidies, prices rose for a broad range of food items and daily necessities because of rising raw material costs. Households also paid more for personal computers and tablets due to a spike in the prices of chips, the data showed. “Core inflation will continue to accelerate as a trend due to rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict and subsequent second-round effects," said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, adding that he expects the BOJ to raise its policy interest rate in December. Service -sector inflation hit 2.3% in September, accelerating from 1.4% the previous month, indicating that firms were passing on rising labor costs from a tight job market. The BOJ raised its key rate to a 31-year high last month, with its governor signaling the bank has entered a phase focused on preventing underlying inflation from overshooting its target, raising the prospect of further rate hikes. The bank has said underlying inflation, which is the broad, demand-driven price trend that strips away one-off factors, is close to its 2% target but has yet to meet it. A primary factor would be how the recent rises in wholesale and consumer prices affect public perception of future price movement, which is crucial for anchoring underlying inflation around the BOJ’s target, analysts said. In July, the BOJ forecast core consumer inflation of 2.5% in fiscal 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, reflecting a pass-through of costs from conflict in the Middle East. Analysts are focusing on whether a renewed recent rise in crude oil prices could prompt the BOJ to raise its inflation forecasts in October. “The second wave of the energy shock could keep inflation elevated longer than expected, which could embolden hawks in the BOJ board," said Shinke at Dai-ichi Life Research.
Source: https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/tokyo-core-inflation-jumps-in-september-bolsters-case-for-more-boj-hikes-4928698
USD/JPY
Wall Street ended solidly higher on Friday, as investors reduced their expectations of imminent Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening following a softer-than-expected September jobs report. The benchmark S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to close at 7,724.06 points, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to settle at 51,177.44 points. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite jumped 1.2% to conclude at 27,190.86 points after taking out a new record intraday high of 27,353.68 points earlier. However , while the NASDAQ added 0.5% for the week, the S&P and Dow shed 0.3% and 1.3%, respectively. The decline was largely driven by a relentless rout in longer-term Treasury bonds, sending the 10-year and 30-year yields to multi-decade highs. Losses have been capped by a fall in oil prices on improving Middle East crude flows. September jobs growth slowest of the year According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nonfarm payrolls rose 29k last month, significantly lower than the estimated figure of 89k. The monthly growth was the slowest of the year. Moreover, nonfarm employment in July and August combined were revised down by 60k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in September from 4.1% in August. The data comes at a time when separate indicators have suggested a resilient U.S. economy and a slight moderation in stubbornly high inflation. Any signs of labor market weakness in such a scenario means a central bank would typically hold interest rates steady, as tightening policy can quell price pressures but at the risk of further denting economic growth and labor activity. The reaction in Fed October rate expectations reflected the same. As per the CME Fed Watch tool, the odds of a quarter-point rate hike later this month fell to nearly 23% while those of the central bank holding rates steadily surged to about 77 %. While the nonfarm payrolls report disappointed, Fed policymakers will likely continue to focus on the inflation part of their dual mandate. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Thursday said interest rates will need to rise by at least 50 basis points to curb price pressures. Separately, Fed Governor Lisa Cook warned that artificial intelligence-driven inflation was a major risk for 2027. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that while he expects more rate hikes will be needed to cap inflation going into 2027, he was unsure whether the next hike would come later in October. "For the Fed, the mediocre September jobs report wasn’t weak enough to shift their focus away from inflation. The September CPI and PPI reports, prices at the pump, and geopolitical developments between now and when the Fed meets next in late October have more power to sway the next rate decision than does this lukewarm jobs report," Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, said. The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data is scheduled for October 14 and 15, respectively, while the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate decision is set for October 28. Annual wage growth falls to nearly five-and-a-half year low While the trimming of Fed rate hike bets helped equities and also led to an initial rally in U.S. Treasury bonds, the enthusiasm faded somewhat later in Friday’s trading session, as economic data watchers digged deeper into the jobs report. As per the BLS, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls ticked up 0.1% M/M and 3% Y/Y in September to $37.81. The annual increase was the slowest since May 2021."I am a little surprised by the market reaction. The employment report was disappointing across the board. Additionally, wage growth continued to slow, reaching its weakest pace since 2021. While the Fed may not be hiking right now, we still have an inflation problem. The combination of slowing growth and high inflation threatens to evolve into a stagflationary environment," Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading, told Investing.com. Earlier this week, the latest reading on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in softer than anticipated and showed moderation from the previous month. Still, the headline figure of 3.4% was well above the Fed’s 2% annual target. Markets had sharply pared bets on an October hike following the inflation data, although expectations had remained for at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. Other economists said U.S. wage growth had been offset by rising inflation. "Inflation has eaten up all wage gains for the average worker since April. Many people are having to make hard choices about what to buy and what to skimp on right now. Yes, consumption is still strong (mainly due to wealthier Americans and people dipping into savings or credit cards), but a lot of people have to think hard about every dollar they spend," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, said. Bonds resume rout A rout in the U.S. bond market halted after the release of the jobs report, amid the fall in odds for imminent Fed hikes, but selling resumed later in the day. "Treasuries initially rallied following the weaker-than-expected jobs report, which sent the odds of an October rate hike plunging. But as is typical in bear markets, the rally was sold, and Treasuries are now down on the day," Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, said. The paring of Fed policy tightening odds has helped shorter-term, more rate-sensitive tenors such as the 2-year Treasury yield this week. But longer-end maturities have suffered due to a combination of oil-related inflationary concerns, jitters around the massive amounts of debt being issued by companies to fund their artificial intelligence infrastructure buildouts and ballooning fiscal debt. The 2-year yield has fallen 2.5 basis points so far this week. Conversely, the 10-year is up 9.9 basis points while the 30-year has climbed 13 basis points. On Thursday, both instruments touched their highest levels since April 1, 2002, and May 20, 2002, respectively.
Source : https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-drift-higher-with-nonfarm-payrolls-in-focus-4928740
Dow Jones
Gold (XAU/USD) started the week under immense bearish pressure but managed to stabilize. Investors will remain focused on the action in global bond markets in the near term. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s technical outlook suggests that sellers are likely to retain control. Gold attracts safe-haven flows following bearish action Gold registered large losses on Monday and came in within a touching distance of $4,100 as the US Treasury bond yields continued to push higher, with market participants pricing in an increasing chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in October on hawkish comments from policymakers and upbeat macroeconomic data releases to wrap up the previous week. On Tuesday, US data showed that JOLTS Job Openings declined to 7.079 million in August from 7.335 million in July. Additionally, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 81.9 in September from August’s 88.6 (revised from 89.4). As these weak prints limited the US Dollar’s (USD) gains, XAU/USD rose more than 1% on the day and retraced a portion of Monday’s losses. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, held steady at 3.4% in August. In this period, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3%, matching July’s increase. These readings came in well below analysts’ estimates, and the BEA revised July prints lower by 0.3%. While the initial reaction to soft inflation readings caused the USD to weaken, the positive revision to the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter, from 1.5% to 2.2%, and the 90K increase recorded in private sector employment, compared to the market expectation of 70K, helped the currency limit its losses and capped XAU/USD’s rebound. The USD continued to gather strength against major currencies on Thursday as the 10-year US T-bond yield hit its highest level since April 2002, above 5.3%. However, Gold attracted safe-haven demand amid a global bond selloff and kept its footing to end the day marginally higher above $4,150. XAU/EUR, XAU/GBP and XAU/JPY pairs rose about 1% on Thursday, reflecting a capital outflow from those currencies into the previous metal. Analysts at Deutsche Bank reported that markets stumbled “as we began Q4, with mounting signs of financial stress focused on Europe.” They highlight that the pressure “cascaded across different asset classes,” with the Euro on Thursday “(-0.76%) posting its worst day against the Dollar since June,” while the STOXX Banks index “(-3.90%) had its worst day since March,” underscoring how quickly concerns around European financial conditions have intensified. Meanwhile, some cautious comments from Fed policymakers on further policy tightening helped Gold hold its ground in the second half of the week. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said that she sees no urgent need for more rate moves this year, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued that if they keep raising rates, they will put different pressure on different parts of the economy. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 29K in September. This print followed the 133K increase recorded in August (revised from 162K) and came in well below the market expectation of 90K. Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.2%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 61.8% from 61.6%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, softened to 3% from 3.1% and came in below analysts' estimate of 3.2%. The odds of an October Fed rate hike diminished further following the employment report and helped Gold keep its footing heading into the weekend. Gold could continue to react to bond market action The US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for September. If the headline PMI holds near August’s 55.4 and the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component of the survey, rises further, the immediate reaction could help the USD preserve its strength and make it difficult for XAU/USD to gather bullish momentum. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish the minutes of the September policy meeting. Discussions surrounding the possibility of a policy action in October could ramp up Gold’s volatility. If the publication highlights that policymakers argued against consecutive rate increases, Gold could gain traction with US Treasury bond yields correcting lower. Investors will continue to pay close attention to the situation in global bond markets. Even if the USD continues to outperform its major rivals, Gold could hold its ground in case bond selloff in major economies persists.
Meanwhile, the ongoing decline in crude Oil prices seems to have been overlooked recently, with market participants focusing on global bond markets. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 3% for the third consecutive week as reports highlighted a noticeable improvement in Oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement to end the conflict, an extended decline in Oil prices could be supportive for Gold in the short term.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-precious-metal-extends-slide-but-safe-haven-flows-limit-losses-202610021435
GOLD
Oil turned higher on Friday, reversing earlier losses driven by improving Middle East crude flows and a move by the Group of Seven countries to release emergency crude stocks to help bring global prices down, especially diesel. Despite Fridays about turn, the crude contracts were headed for a weekly loss, though both posted significant September gains earlier in the week. Brent had shed 1.5% for the week, while WTI had fallen 1.2%. Stalled diplomacy, rising crude flows On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington was weighing the deployment of another aircraft carrier group and additional troops to the Middle East by the end of November, raising concerns that renewed military action against Tehran could threaten oil flows from the region. President Donald Trump also told his aides that he expects to resume strikes on Iran that same month after the U.S. midterm elections, the WSJ added. Iran’s state media on Friday said any aggression or threat would be met with a "painful" and "devastating response," citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.A lack of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran has kept traders on edge. There had been hopes earlier last month that the two sides would reach some kind of diplomatic breakthrough at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, but those were quickly dashed after Trump and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian exchanged fiery speeches and negotiations between representatives of the nations on the sidelines yielded no tangible results. Washington and Tehran remain at odds over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump this week asserted that the U.S. had control of the waterway through its naval blockade and economic sanctions, while also touting greater flows out of the vital corridor than "at any time" in its history, including before the start of the war at the end of February. Shipping data has indeed shown an uptick in crude flows this week. Total Middle East crude oil exports jumped 36% week-on-week to 17.92 million barrels per day, TankerTrackers.com said on Wednesday. The rise has also been driven by Saudi Arabia restarting its East-West Pipeline, which had been shut down for several days following drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthis. Europe to release emergency stocks after White House pressure the big headline on Friday was the Group of Seven’s move to help bring global oil prices under control. The countries said they would immediately release up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude stock over the next four months under the coordination of the International Energy Agency. “Facing unprecedented volatility in oil markets - with surging prices threatening economic stability and the well-being of our citizens - we have agreed on decisive, coordinated measures to stabilize immediate energy supplies, shield households and businesses from price shocks, and strengthen the long-term resilience of global energy systems," the G7 nations said in a statement. Global diesel prices have surged amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. In the U.S., the national average price of diesel hit a record high of $6.5276 per gallon on September 22, and currently hovers at $6.3726, according to AAA. The pressure at the pump comes ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Reuters earlier this week reported that the White House had urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories in an effort to lower global prices, citing two sources familiar with the effort. A Financial Times report later in the week said Trump was considering a range of measures, including a possible diesel export ban, to curb domestic prices. “I asked for it. Europe has a lot of diesels and they’re going to be making a major world contribution — and so are we," Trump later told reporters. “We’re not going to be doing the export ban," the U.S. president added.
Heating oil futures expiring in November had initially extended losses after the announcement from G7 , but then later turned higher and were last up 1.2% to $4.5559 per gallon.
Source : https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-holds-gains-as-us-weighs-more-middle-east-military-presence-4928800
C L
| Events | Actual | Previous | |
| EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | | |
| AUD | Cash Rate | 4.60% | 4.35% |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | | |
| AUD | RBA Press Conference | | |
| EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | | |
| CAD | GDP m/m | 0.00% | 0.40% |
| USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 81.9 | 88.6 |
| USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 7.08M | 7.34M |
| AUD | CPI m/m | 0.40% | 1.00% |
| AUD | CPI y/y | 4.00% | 3.50% |
| AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.60% | 0.20% |
| USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 90K | 36K |
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| USD | Final GDP q/q | 2.20% | 1.50% |
| USD | Final GDP Price Index q/q | 6.10% | 6.40% |
| USD | President Trump Speaks | | |
| USD | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | | |
| CHF | CPI m/m | 0.00% | 0.40% |
| GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 197K | 198K |
| EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | | |
| USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | | |
| USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.6 |
| CHF | SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks | | |
| JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 2.70% | 1.80% |
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 2.50% | 2.40% |
| EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 3.80% | 3.20% |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 29K | 133K |
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | 4.10% |
| Date | Time | Currency | Events | Forecast | Previous |
| 10/05/2026 | 5:00pm | USD | ISM Services PMI | 55.1 | 55.4 |
| 10/06/2026 | 9:35am | JPY | BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | | |
| 10/06/2026 | 5:00pm | CAD | Ivey PMI | 65.2 | 64.3 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9:00pm | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | | |
| 10/08/2026 | 3:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | 200K | 197K |
| 10/09/2026 | 3:30pm | CAD | Employment Change | 9.0K | -41.7K |
| 10/09/2026 | 3:30pm | CAD | Unemployment Rate | 6.50% | 6.40% |
| 10/09/2026 | 5:00pm | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 47.6 | 48.1 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5:00pm | USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | | 4.60% |
MACD uses different exponential moving averages to generate buy and sell indicators. The lower pane of the chart shows two lines: a Differential Line and a Signal Line. The Differential Line is the difference between a short and long-period exponential moving average, typically 12 and 26 periods. The Signal Line is typically a 9-period exponential moving average. When the DL crosses the SL from above, a sell indicator is generated, and when it crosses from below a buy signal is generated.
This is a momentum indicator that measures a security's price in relation to itself. The lower pane of the chart shows a line that fluctuates on a scale of 0 to 100. Typically buy signals are generated at 30 and sell signals are generated at 70. If the line breaks 30, the security is oversold, and a reversal is imminent. If the line breaks 70, it is overbought and is due for a downward correction.
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