Market analysis

Date: Monday 22nd of June 2026

EUR/USD : Winds of change blowing into the Federal Reserve

GBP/USD : R ebounds as holiday-thinned trade slows USD bulls

USD/JPY : Nears two years high, as intervention risks loom

Dow Jones : Ends a Volatile Week as Investors Digest Federal Reserve Signals

Gold : Hawkish Fed leads to third consecutive weekly loss

Crude Oil : F alls after US-Iran talks signal easing supply risks

EUR/USD

Winds of change blowing into the Federal Reserve.

The E uro fell to 1.1417, it’s lowest since last March, as the US Dollar soared following the first Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. EUR/USD got to recover some ground on Friday, finishing the week, however, well below the 1.1500 mark. Two factors put the Greenback on the bullish track: an agreement between Iran and the US to end the war, and a surprisingly hawkish announcement from the Fed, forcing investors to rethink their views on the American currency’s future . The Fed announced its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and as widely anticipated, the central bank left the Fed's fund rate unchanged, floating between 3.50% and 3.75%. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) delivered the first surprise, as, out of 19 members, dots came from only 18 voters: of course, the one that refrained from providing forward guidance was Chair Kevin Warsh. The document included upward revisions to inflation and interest rates forecasts, alongside modest downward revisions to growth perspectives. No news there, as it reflected policymakers' focus on inflationary pressures. And indeed, Warsh press conference revolved around it: he repeatedly noted that the central bank's goal is to restore price stability, while inflation remains well above target. His hawkish words boosted speculation of upcoming rate hikes. Also, the usual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was halved, as Warsh removed all hints of future Fed action. He also announced a broad review of the Fed's framework. Alongside that line, he clarified that five task forces will focus on communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and employment, and the Fed's inflation framework, and are expected to propose recommendations for future changes. Warsh made it clear that a new communications regime has begun, in which market players won’t be able to speculate about what the Fed will or won’t do: it will all depend on macroeconomic data and economic health. At this point, officials' views on growth and employment seem confident, while those on inflation are worrisome. Following the announcement, speculative interest rushed to price in rate hikes coming and probably more than one before year-end, driving US Dollar demand. Iran's war on a firmer pause . Beyond the Fed’s announcement, investors welcomed news that US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart, President Masoud Pezeshkian, signed an agreement that restores traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and opens a 60-day period for negotiations toward a final deal. The agreement also includes Iran resuming Oil exports and the US waiving sanctions on the Middle East country. On Friday, a senior US official reported that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire, according to headlines coming from Reuters, although markets hardly reacted to the headlines, taking them with a pinch of salt. The other one is Iran’s nuclear power, something to discuss in the 60-day window. However , markets are optimistic, limiting USD strength by the end of the week. European Central Bank hike fading into oblivion . Market players seem to have forgotten that the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered interest rate hikes just one week before the Fed’s monetary policy announcement. Indeed, ECB officials made a more cautious decision, repeating that they will remain data dependent . But it’s also true that the ECB was left alone. Different European central banks announced their monetary policy decisions this week, including the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and Norge’s Bank, and all kept rates unchanged. Besides, growth in the Old Continent has become sluggish, and fears of persistent stagflation spread. That said, it’s clear that the US economy is in a much better place than the European one, while even after the ECB hike, rates are still higher in the US. The ECB rate hike is meaningless, and investors finally saw it. Macroeconomic data in the docket . Confirming Eurozone tepid performance, Industrial Production rose a modest 0.1% in May. The block also confirmed that inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), rose by 3.2% YoY in May, while the core annual HICP hit 2.6%. The US reported May Retail Sales, which rose 0.9% MoM in May. In the upcoming days, focus will return to ECB and Fed officials’ words, with ECB President Christine Lagarde opening the calendar on Monday. The European Union (EU) will publish the preliminary estimate of June Consumer Confidence, while the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) will unveil the preliminary estimates of the June Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). Germany has scheduled the June IFO survey on Business Climate and the GfK Consumer Confidence survey for the same month.

As for the US, investors will be looking for clues coming from the preliminary estimates of the June S&P Global PMIs and May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data. The country will also publish the final revision of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), May Durable Goods Orders, and the final reading of the June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index .

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-winds-of-change-blowing-into-the-federal-reserve-202606191513

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

Rebounds as holiday-thinned trade slows USD bulls

The British pound enters a pivotal trading week after experiencing significant volatility driven by central bank decisions, inflation concerns, economic data releases, and changing expectations surrounding future interest rate policies. Last week, the British pound faced mixed pressure as investors evaluated the Bank of England's latest policy stance alongside a stronger U.S. dollar fueled by a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook. While the pound received some support from resilient UK economic indicators, the greenback's strength ultimately played a dominant role in shaping market sentiment. With several important economic releases scheduled this week including the highly anticipated U.S. Core PCE Inflation Report . Traders are preparing for potentially heightened volatility and major directional moves. In this report, we review the key developments that influenced GBP/USD last week and examine the factors likely to drive the pair during the week ahead. The Pound Sterling recovers some ground after nearing a three-month low on Friday at 1.3163, sponsored by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt, but edges up 0.18% amid thin trading conditions due to a holiday in the US. GBPUSD trades at 1.3226, yet it is poised to end with weekly losses of 1.25%. GBPUSD trims losses as traders weigh Fed, BoE and geopolitics . Market sentiment remains fragile despite the recovery from the US-Iran deal. During the last two days, hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel tested the Middle East agreement signed digitally by Washington and Tehran . Recently, a Hezbollah source stated that if Israel adheres to the ceasefire, they will adhere, but if Israel does not, they have the right to respond according to Al-Jadeed. Regarding this, an Israeli official said that we are in a test of the ceasefire now, but if Hezbollah attacks, they will respond, Channel 13 reported. Back to macroeconomics, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt, sparked by nearly half of the FOMC members expecting a rate hike towards year-end, drove the Greenback to a 13-month high of 101.13, with the May 16, 2025, peak at 101.26, in sight. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's value against six currencies, is flat but remains above 101.00. The DXY added to gains due to the escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, though news that Hezbollah and the Israeli army declared a ceasefire relieved trader . In the UK, the schedule provided a benign inflation reading before the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision on Thursday, in which they held rates at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split, with Pill and Greene opting for a rate hike, sponsored by households seeing inflation expectations at the highest level since 2009. Furthermore, UK data showed that retail sales were stronger than expected, but other data showed a larger-than-expected budget deficit. This adds to investors' fears that fiscal spending could get out of control, along with Labor Mayor Andy Burnham's victory in northern England, setting the stage for a clash with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. What’s in the calendar for next week? Next week, the UK economic docket will feature Flash PMIs and speeches by Bank of England officials. Across the pond, the US schedule will feature speeches by Federal Reserve officials, Flash PMIs, housing and jobs data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. GBP/USD enters the week at a critical juncture as traders prepare for one of the most important inflation reports of the month. Last week's Federal Reserve meeting reinforced expectations that U.S. interest rates may remain elevated for longer, supporting the dollar and creating challenges for sterling. At the same time, persistent UK inflation and a cautious Bank of England continue providing support for the pound. The upcoming Core PCE inflation report will likely be the decisive factor in determining whether GBP/USD resumes an upward move or extends its recent weakness. For forex traders and investors, this week's combination of inflation data, central bank expectations, and economic releases promises to create significant opportunities and volatility in one of the world's most actively traded currency pairs.

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rebounds-as-holiday-thinned-trade-slows-usd-bulls-202606191529

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

Nears two years high, as intervention risks loom

The USDJPY pair remained resilient last week despite a historic interest rate increase from the Bank of Japan. While the BOJ raised its benchmark rate to 1.0%—its highest level since 1995—the U.S. dollar continued to dominate due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy tighter for longer. As traders enter a new week, all attention is turning toward the upcoming U.S. Core PCE Price Index report, widely regarded as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The data could determine the next major move for USD/JPY and broader financial markets . Federal Reserve Maintains Hawkish Tone . The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged during its latest meeting but signaled that inflation remains a concern. Policymakers indicated that additional rate hikes could still be possible if inflation failed to move closer to the Fed's 2% target. This hawkish stance supported U.S. Treasury yields and strengthened demand for the U.S. dollar throughout the week. Bank of Japan Delivers Historic Rate Hike . The Bank of Japan surprised some market participants by raising its policy rate to 1.0%, marking the highest interest rate level in Japan in more than three decades. Although a rate increase would typically strengthen the Japanese yen, traders focused on the continuing yield advantage offered by U.S. assets. As a result, USD/JPY remained elevated near the psychologically important 160 level. As USD/JPY approaches levels not seen in decades, traders continue monitoring comments from Japanese officials. Historically, authorities have intervened in the currency market when excessive yen weakness threatens economic stability. Any intervention-related headlines could trigger significant short-term volatility. For this reason, traders should remain cautious if USD/JPY approaches the 161–162 area. The overall outlook for USD/JPY remains moderately bullish heading into the week. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to support the dollar, while the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan remains substantial. However, the upcoming Core PCE inflation report will likely determine whether the pair extends its rally toward new highs or experiences a corrective pullback. For forex traders, this week's inflation data could be one of the most important catalysts of the month. USD/JPY enters the week with bullish momentum, supported by strong U.S. yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated for longer. While the Bank of Japan's recent rate hike marks a significant policy shift, the market remains focused on U.S. inflation and future Fed actions. With the Core PCE report approaching, traders should prepare for increased volatility and closely monitor inflation data, Treasury yields, and comments from both the Federal Reserve and Japanese officials. The direction of USD/JPY this week may ultimately depend on whether inflation proves more persistent—or begins to show signs of cooling. Overall, USDJPY maintained a bullish structure and continued to trade near multi-year highs.

Source ; https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-nears-two-year-high-around-16175-as-intervention-risks-loom-202606220802

USD/JPY

Dow Jones

Ends a Volatile Week as Investors Digest Federal Reserve Signals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a turbulent trading week as investors weighed a combination of monetary policy developments, easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and shifting expectations regarding future interest rates. Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, its latest policy statement reinforced concerns that inflation remains stubbornly above target. This prompted investors to reassess expectations for future rate cuts and contributed to increased volatility across U.S. equity markets. As the new trading week begins, market participants are turning their attention toward several key economic releases, particularly the Core PCE Price Index, which could play a critical role in determining the next major move for the Dow Jones and broader U.S. stock market ." Federal Reserve Dominates Market Sentiment . The biggest event of the previous week was the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. As widely expected, policymakers left interest rates unchanged. However, investors were surprised by the central bank's updated economic projections, which suggested that inflation could remain elevated longer than previously anticipated. Federal Reserve officials raised their inflation forecasts and indicated that further tightening remains possible if inflation does not continue moving toward the 2% target. This hawkish message initially pressured stocks as investors adjusted expectations for future borrowing costs. The Dow Jones experienced sharp intraday swings following the announcement, highlighting the market's sensitivity to interest-rate expectations. The overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Economic growth remains resilient, corporate earnings are generally healthy and falling oil prices provide support for consumers and businesses. However, inflation data remains the key variable. The Core PCE report will likely determine whether investors continue pushing the Dow Jones toward new highs or begin taking profits after the market's strong performance. If inflation shows signs of cooling, the Dow Jones could resume its upward trend and challenge new record levels. If inflation remains stubbornly high, markets may face renewed pressure as investors prepare for the possibility of additional Federal Reserve tightening. Th is week has the potential to be even more important than the previous one. Several major economic releases could significantly impact investor sentiment and market direction. Despite broader market volatility, technology companies remained among the strongest performers. Artificial intelligence-related stocks continued attracting investor interest as demand for advanced computing infrastructure remained robust. The technology sector once again provided crucial support for major U.S. indices and helped limit broader market declines. Investor enthusiasm surrounding AI remains one of the most important themes driving equity markets in 2026. The Dow Jones enters the new week at a critical crossroads. Last week's Federal Reserve meeting reminded investors that inflation remains a central concern, while oil prices are falling and resilient corporate earnings continue providing support for equities. With the Core PCE inflation report approaching, traders and investors should prepare for heightened volatility and closely monitor economic data releases. The outcome of this week's inflation figures could shape market expectations for months ahead and determine whether the Dow Jones continues its climb toward new highs or enters a period of consolidation. For now, all eyes remain firmly focused on inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's next move.

Source ; https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stock-futures-slide-after-trump-threatens-more-iran-strikes-despite-peace-talks-4751694

Dow Jones

Gold

 Hawkish Fed leads to third consecutive weekly loss.

Gold opened with a bullish gap and registered strong gains in the first half of the week, but a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) spoiled the party. Mid-tier macroeconomic data releases from the United States (US) and changes in crude Oil prices could impact XAU/USD’s action in the near term, while the technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact. Gold makes a U-turn after hawkish Fed message . Gold started the week sharply higher and gained more than 2% on Monday as investors cheered the news of the US and Iran reaching an agreement on a framework deal to end the war. Both sides confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, and Oil prices dropped to levels not seen since the early days of the war. As market participants moved to the sidelines on Tuesday in anticipation of the Fed meeting, Gold stabilized above $4,300 and ended the day with small gains. In the meantime, US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf virtually signed the agreement to end the blockade of Iranian ports, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start 60 days of nuclear negotiations late Monday. After spending most of the day in a tight range at around $4,300 on Wednesday, XAU/USD turned south in the American session as the USD rallied on Fed announcements. The US central bank left the policy rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, as expected, and dropped the easing language from the statement. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) pointed to a 25 basis points of rate hikes in 2026, a significant change from the rate cut that was priced in in the previous SEP. In his first post-meeting press conference, Chairman Kevin Warsh, who did not offer an interest rate projection of his own, adopted a relatively neutral tone. The fact that he refrained from emphasizing a return to a policy-easing path, even after the US-Iran deal dragged energy prices lower, was assessed as a hawkish surprise. Combined with the SEP projections, the USD gathered strength and XAU/USD lost about 1.7% on the day, erasing a large portion of its weekly gains in the process. Commenting on the market reaction to the Fed event, MUFG’s Lee Hardman noted that the Fed’s hawkish policy update should help to keep US rates and the US Dollar at higher levels heading into the summer. “If the Fed follows through and hikes rates it would reinforce the Fed’s upward momentum. We are not convinced though that a rate hike will be required but acknowledge that there is a higher risk of rate hike in the second half of this year,” Hardman added. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about an 88% probability that the Fed will raise the rate by 25 bps at least once by end-2026. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its final revision to the first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May. Market participants will pay close attention to the monthly core PCE Price Index reading. In case this data arrives at or above the market expectation of 0.3%, the USD is likely to stay resilient against its peers and make it difficult for Gold to attract bulls. On the other hand, reading below 0.3% could have the opposite effect on the precious metal’s valuation. Investors will scrutinize comments from Fed officials throughout the week. If policymakers adopt an optimistic tone about the inflation outlook and push back against the strong market expectation of at least one rate hike later in the year, XAU/USD could gather recovery momentum. The CME Fed Watch Tool currently shows that there is a 36% chance that the Fed could raise the interest rate by 25 bps at the next meeting in July. In case Fed officials leave the door open to a tightening step next month, the market positioning suggests that there is more room on the upside for the US Dollar. In this scenario, XAU/USD could have a hard time shaking off the bearish pressure. In the meantime, an extended drop in crude Oil prices, with the US-Iran negotiations moving back on track, could ease inflation fears and cause investors to reassess the Fed policy outlook. Although markets are unlikely to suddenly start pricing in a Fed policy hold rather than tightening in the short-to-medium term, a steady decline in energy costs could remain supportive for Gold soon . Gold enters the week at a pivotal moment. Last week's Federal Reserve meeting highlighted ongoing inflation concerns, while rising Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar created headwinds for the precious metal. Despite these challenges, gold demonstrated resilience and continued attracting investors seeking protection against uncertainty and inflation risks. With the Core PCE inflation report approaching, traders should prepare for increased volatility. The results could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and determine gold's direction in the weeks ahead. For now, gold remains caught between competing forces: persistent inflation that supports demand and higher interest rates that limit upside potential. The outcome of this week's economic data will likely decide which force ultimately prevails.

As the new trading week begins, gold investors are focusing on several important economic events, particularly the upcoming U.S. Core PCE Price Index report. Since inflation remains the primary concern for central banks worldwide, this week's data could have a major impact on gold prices and broader financial markets .

Source : https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-hawkish-fed-leads-to-third-consecutive-weekly-loss-202606191450

GOLD

Crude Oil

Falls after US-Iran talks signal easing supply risks.

The crude oil market experienced one of its most eventful weeks in recent months as traders reacted to major geopolitical developments, shifting supply expectations, central bank policy decisions, and changing global economic forecasts. After weeks of heightened volatility, oil prices moved sharply lower as diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran reduced concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East. At the same time, investors continued monitoring global demand prospects, OPEC+ production policies, and the impact of higher interest rates on economic activity. As a new trading week begins, oil traders face another crucial period that could determine whether crude prices continue their recent decline or stage a meaningful recovery. This report examines the major developments that shaped the oil market last week and outlines the key factors likely to influence prices in the week ahead. The most significant development impacting crude oil last week was the continued progress in diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran. For months, markets had priced in a geopolitical risk premium due to concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. However, reports suggesting that negotiations were advancing toward a broader agreement significantly reduced fears of supply interruptions. As a result, traders began removing a substantial portion of the geopolitical premium that had supported crude oil prices. The decline in risk sentiment led to widespread selling across energy markets. As geopolitical concerns eased, Brent crude oil fell below the important $80 per barrel level. The move represented one of the largest weekly declines in recent months and reflected growing confidence that global supply risks may be moderating. Many traders viewed the break below $80 as a significant technical development that could influence market sentiment moving forward. Meanwhile, WTI crude also experienced substantial selling pressure as investors adjusted their expectations for future supply conditions. Although geopolitical developments dominated headlines, OPEC+ remained an important factor influencing market expectations. The producer alliance continues to manage output levels carefully in an effort to maintain market stability and support prices. Market participants continue to debate whether OPEC+ may need to consider additional production adjustments if prices remain under pressure. Any future policy changes from the organization could have a major impact on market direction. The U.S. dollar strengthened following the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar typically makes crude more expensive for international buyers. This currency effect added further downward pressure on prices and reinforced the broader bearish sentiment in energy markets. Although no major policy meeting is scheduled this week, traders will closely monitor comments from OPEC+ officials. Any indication that producers may consider further output adjustments could significantly impact market sentiment. Market participants remain highly sensitive to signals regarding future production levels. Crude oil enters the week following a significant shift in market sentiment. Last week's diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran removed a substantial geopolitical premium from prices, leading to one of the largest declines seen in recent months. Despite the selloff, several supportive factors remain in place, including OPEC+ supply management, seasonal demand strength, and resilient economic activity.

This week's Core PCE inflation report, U.S. inventory data, and global economic releases will likely determine whether crude oil stabilizes and rebounds or continues its recent downward trend. For traders and investors, volatility is expected to remain elevated as markets continue balancing supply risks, demand expectations, and central bank policy developments .

Source : https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/brent-oil-rises-more-than-1bbl-after-bumpy-start-to-usiran-peace-talks-4751687

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MAJOR DATA RELEASED DURING LAST WEEK

MAJOR DATA COMING OUT THIS WEEK (Time zone GMT+3)

Disclaimer

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD):

MACD uses different exponential moving averages to generate buy and sell indicators. The lower pane of the chart shows two lines: a Differential Line and a Signal Line. The Differential Line is the difference between a short and long-period exponential moving average, typically 12 and 26 periods. The Signal Line is typically a 9-period exponential moving average. When the DL crosses the SL from above, a sell indicator is generated, and when it crosses from below a buy signal is generated.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

This is a momentum indicator that measures a security's price in relation to itself. The lower pane of the chart shows a line that fluctuates on a scale of 0 to 100. Typically buy signals are generated at 30 and sell signals are generated at 70. If the line breaks 30, the security is oversold, and a reversal is imminent. If the line breaks 70, it is overbought and is due for a downward correction.

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